{ "generated_at": "2026-09-02T18:06:29Z", "methodology": { "horizon_candles": 20, "natr_multiplier": 1.0, "analysis_version": 4, "outcome_classes": [ "breakout", "breakdown", "sideways", "forming" ], "breakout_definition": "Exclusive class: upside clears +1\u00d7 natr_14 within 20 candles before downside.", "breakdown_definition": "Exclusive class: downside clears \u22121\u00d7 natr_14 within 20 candles before upside.", "sideways_definition": "Pattern-end (terminal) unresolved class: neither +1\u00d7 nor \u22121\u00d7 natr_14 cleared within 20 candles after the breached candle. Headline KPIs, ranks, and geometry bins use this sample; Forming is not in that formula. Sideways is not a zero-move class; typical wick travel inside the bands is reported as \u00d7NATR max-up / max-down.", "forming_definition": "Trendline families only, and only on non-terminal snapshots still inside the lines: neither side tagged within 20 candles. Age-balanced Fuel / RSI / point-in-time bins add Forming so four exclusive classes sum to 100%. Forming-only trees (live still-inside matches) use breakout + breakdown + forming = 100%.", "sideways_katex": "\\mathrm{Sideways}\\iff\\text{terminal and no }\\pm 1.0\\times\\mathrm{NATR}\\text{ tag within }20\\text{ candles}", "forming_katex": "\\mathrm{Forming}\\iff\\text{still inside trendlines and no }\\pm 1.0\\times\\mathrm{NATR}\\text{ tag within }20\\text{ candles}", "classification_note": "Labels use ground-truth path outcomes (outcome_label / target_first_hit from full kline OHLC path). Trendline families evaluate confirmed candle closes against projected support/resistance bands. Unresolved non-terminal trendline snapshots are Forming; unresolved terminal snapshots are Sideways. Double/triple bottoms require breaking the bottom support floor for breakdown. Head & shoulders evaluate from neckline confirmation. Same-bar dual clears resolve via open proximity, then candle body polarity, then return sign. Pattern-end headline rates: breakout + breakdown + sideways = 100%. Forming+terminal Fuel/RSI bins: breakout + breakdown + sideways + forming = 100%.", "correlation_method": "Spearman rank correlation with Benjamini\u2013Hochberg FDR q-values; stars require q < 0.05 and |\u03c1| \u2265 0.05", "significance_levels": { "*": "q < 0.05 and |\u03c1| \u2265 0.05", "**": "q < 0.01 and |\u03c1| \u2265 0.05", "***": "q < 0.001 and |\u03c1| \u2265 0.05" }, "min_corr_n": 30, "min_correlation_n": 30, "min_abs_rho_for_stars": 0.05, "temporal_holdout_cutoff": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "validation_contract": { "split": "chronological holdout", "purge": "Training rows whose 20-candle label horizon crosses the holdout cutoff are removed.", "grouping": "Results are reported separately by pattern and timeframe.", "calibration_metrics": [ "Brier score", "log loss" ] }, "null_baseline_permutations": 50, "correlation_exclusions": { "breakout_success": [ "natr_14" ], "breakdown_success": [ "natr_14" ] }, "public_feature_policy": "Public research pages show Fuel volume/momentum scores, geometry, volume trend, momentum (RSI, BTC RSI when available), RSI-divergence geometry, and BTC mean distance. Fuel and RSI stay on fixed domain zones. geom_width and HS symmetry use mean\u00b1\u03c3 bands (below typical / typical / elevated / extreme). geom_height and extension use log then \u00b1\u03c3. Remaining numeric features stay on quartiles. Bins are never pooled across timeframes.", "dedupe_keys": [ "symbol", "timeframe", "pattern_type", "pattern_start_idx" ], "dedupe_rule": "One row per formation start; keep the longest pattern_end_idx (then latest end, then higher confidence).", "label_contract": { "rows_input": 662498, "rows_path_labeled": 662498, "rows_rejected_legacy": 0 }, "strict_path_labels": true, "terminal_snapshot_rule": "max_extension_then_latest_end", "dynamic_snapshot_rule": "one_snapshot_per_formation_age_band", "source_hashes": { "pattern_detector_sha256": "84c5c6932f86399bcfd647b63d7c60ee1daaed78a23b1e3f323f03ebc55171c6", "outcome_labels_sha256": "9849e60b9acec33a07ecee002e920ea8be36c2eb959b9c063269c03be1be2052", "analysis_sha256": "032a2cf1dd3165ad135d072a0893e555efce17c48cbbcaf525bce82d54d3c481" }, "data_source": { "exchange": "Binance", "market": "USD-M Futures (perpetual contracts)", "quote": "USDT", "instrument_type": "crypto perpetual futures", "ohlcv": "Public Binance Futures kline (candlestick) API", "detector": "ChartDatabase AdvancedPatternDetector (geometry + RSI divergence detectors; confidence/recency filters off during dataset build)", "windowing": "Sliding window size 200 candles, step 100 candles", "snapshot": "One row per pattern at pattern_end_idx with 20 forward candles required", "timeframes": [ "15m", "1h", "4h", "1d" ], "notes": [ "Symbols are Binance USD-M perpetual pairs (e.g. BTCUSDT).", "Breakout, breakdown, and sideways are mutually exclusive on pattern-end snapshots and sum to 100%. Forming is the still-inside class on non-terminal trendline snapshots (Fuel/RSI mixed bins add it as a fourth class).", "Multiple detections on the same coin over time are included after deduplication on formation start." ] }, "bullish_patterns": [ "ascending_triangle", "bullish_flag", "bullish_pennant", "channel_descending", "cup_and_handle", "descending_broadening_wedge", "double_bottom", "falling_wedge", "reverse_head_and_shoulders", "rsi_hidden_bullish_divergence", "rsi_regular_bullish_divergence", "triple_bottom" ], "bearish_patterns": [ "ascending_broadening_wedge", "bearish_flag", "bearish_pennant", "channel_ascending", "descending_triangle", "double_top", "head_and_shoulders", "inverted_cup_and_handle", "rising_wedge", "rsi_hidden_bearish_divergence", "rsi_regular_bearish_divergence", "triple_top" ], "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-02T18:06:29Z", "rows_before_dedupe": 662498, "rows_after_dedupe": 134463, "timestamp_min_iso": "2017-09-12T00:00:00Z", "timestamp_max_iso": "2026-07-31T18:45:00Z", "n_symbols": 670, "n_pattern_types": 24, "n_pattern_timeframe_groups": 94, "symbols_sample": [ "0GUSDT", "1000000BOBUSDT", "1000000MOGUSDT", "1000BONKUSDT", "1000BTTCUSDT", "1000CATUSDT", "1000CHEEMSUSDT", "1000FLOKIUSDT", "1000LUNCUSDT", "1000PEPEUSDT", "1000RATSUSDT", "1000SATSUSDT", "1000SHIBUSDT", "1000WHYUSDT", "1000XECUSDT", "1000XUSDT", "1INCHUSDT", "1MBABYDOGEUSDT", "2ZUSDT", "42USDT" ], "symbols_total": 670, "features_analyzed": [ "volume_score", "momentum_score", "rsi_14", "geom_height", "geom_width", "geom_breakout_potential", "geom_resistance_slope", "geom_support_slope", "geom_cup_depth", "geom_cup_width", "geom_handle_depth", "geom_handle_width", "geom_hs_symmetry_score", "geom_hs_completion_score", "current_scale_number", "extension_candle_offset", "extension_progress", "rsi_div_span", "rsi_div_price_delta_pct", "rsi_div_rsi_delta", "rsi_div_price_divergence", "rsi_div_rsi_divergence", "btc_dist14_mean" ], "features_analyzed_count": 23 }, "dataset": { "name": "pattern_datasets_v11", "rows_raw": 662498, "rows_deduped": 134463, "symbols": 670, "pattern_types": 24, "timeframes": [ "15m", "1h", "4h", "1d" ], "timestamp_min": "2017-09-12T00:00:00Z", "timestamp_max": "2026-07-31T18:45:00Z", "symbols_sample": [ "0GUSDT", "1000000BOBUSDT", "1000000MOGUSDT", "1000BONKUSDT", "1000BTTCUSDT", "1000CATUSDT", "1000CHEEMSUSDT", "1000FLOKIUSDT", "1000LUNCUSDT", "1000PEPEUSDT", "1000RATSUSDT", "1000SATSUSDT", "1000SHIBUSDT", "1000WHYUSDT", "1000XECUSDT", "1000XUSDT", "1INCHUSDT", "1MBABYDOGEUSDT", "2ZUSDT", "42USDT" ], "label_contract": { "rows_input": 662498, "rows_path_labeled": 662498, "rows_rejected_legacy": 0 }, "strict_path_labels": true, "terminal_snapshot_rule": "max_extension_then_latest_end", "dynamic_snapshot_rule": "one_snapshot_per_formation_age_band", "hub_reservoir_n": 10000, "source_hashes": { "pattern_detector_sha256": "84c5c6932f86399bcfd647b63d7c60ee1daaed78a23b1e3f323f03ebc55171c6", "outcome_labels_sha256": 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"quantile_method": "uniform_terminal_snapshot_reservoir" }, "by_timeframe": [ { "timeframe": "15m", "n": 28417, "expected_hit_rate": 69.02, "breakout_success_rate": 49.55, "breakdown_success_rate": 45.49, "sideways_rate": 4.96 }, { "timeframe": "1h", "n": 80342, "expected_hit_rate": 68.54, "breakout_success_rate": 48.43, "breakdown_success_rate": 45.86, "sideways_rate": 5.72 }, { "timeframe": "4h", "n": 22681, "expected_hit_rate": 66.33, "breakout_success_rate": 50.76, "breakdown_success_rate": 43.61, "sideways_rate": 5.63 }, { "timeframe": "1d", "n": 3023, "expected_hit_rate": 68.08, "breakout_success_rate": 55.54, "breakdown_success_rate": 39.76, "sideways_rate": 4.7 } ], "by_pattern": [ { "pattern_type": "falling_wedge", "pattern_name": "Falling Wedge", "bias": "bullish", "n": 21502, "n_symbols": 667, "breakout_success_rate": 72.28, "breakdown_success_rate": 24.83, "sideways_rate": 2.89, "forming_rate": 0.0, "both_cleared_rate": 33.22, "breakout_success_rate_ci95": [ 71.67, 72.87 ], "breakdown_success_rate_ci95": [ 24.26, 25.41 ], "sideways_rate_ci95": [ 2.68, 3.13 ], "forming_rate_ci95": [ 0.0, 0.02 ], "both_sides_rate": 33.22, "expected_hit_rate": 72.28, "expected_hit_rate_ci95": [ 71.67, 72.87 ], "mean_ret_10c": 0.559, "median_ret_10c": 0.556, "std_ret_10c": 8.703, "win_rate_ret_gt0": 56.51, "p25_ret_10c": -2.1, "p75_ret_10c": 3.156, "mean_mfe": 6.717, "mean_mae": -4.618, "mfe_mae_ratio": 1.455, "max_up_natr": { "n": 21502, "mean": 2.997, "median": 2.217, "p25": 1.117, "p75": 3.711, "hist": { "bin_edges": [ 0.0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.25, 1.5, 1.75, 2.0, 2.25, 2.5, 2.75, 3.0, 3.25, 3.5, 3.75, 4.0 ], "counts": [ 1790, 1023, 990, 1063, 1161, 1238, 1250, 1169, 1230, 1066, 1019, 943, 865, 753, 650, 5292 ], "bin_centers": [ 0.125, 0.375, 0.625, 0.875, 1.125, 1.375, 1.625, 1.875, 2.125, 2.375, 2.625, 2.875, 3.125, 3.375, 3.625, 3.875 ], "clip_lo": 0.0, "clip_hi": 4.0 } }, "max_down_natr": { "n": 21502, "mean": -2.328, "median": -1.234, "p25": -3.099, "p75": -0.338, 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2.688, "mean_max_down_natr": -2.561, "p25_max_up_natr": 0.698, "p75_max_up_natr": 3.5, "p25_max_down_natr": -3.45, "p75_max_down_natr": -0.827, "outcome_natr_moves": { "breakout": { "n": 1117, "max_up_natr": { "n": 1117, "mean": 4.076, "median": 3.02, "p25": 1.851, "p75": 4.76 }, "max_down_natr": { "n": 1117, "mean": -1.516, "median": -0.828, "p25": -2.04, "p75": -0.272 } }, "breakdown": { "n": 1257, "max_up_natr": { "n": 1257, "mean": 1.587, "median": 0.821, "p25": 0.27, "p75": 2.101 }, "max_down_natr": { "n": 1257, "mean": -3.536, "median": -2.852, "p25": -4.408, "p75": -1.881 } }, "sideways": { "n": 126, "max_up_natr": { "n": 126, "mean": 1.368, "median": 1.141, "p25": 0.482, "p75": 1.988 }, "max_down_natr": { "n": 126, "mean": -2.104, "median": -1.563, "p25": -2.821, "p75": -0.86 } }, "forming": { "n": 0, "max_up_natr": { "n": 0, "mean": null, "median": null, "p25": null, "p75": null }, "max_down_natr": { "n": 0, "mean": null, "median": null, "p25": null, "p75": null } } } }, { "bin_index": 3, "label": "Q4", "range_label": "0.395 \u2013 27.7", "min": 0.395, "max": 27.668, "median_feature": 0.9546, "n": 2500, "breakout_success_rate": 35.48, "breakdown_success_rate": 59.2, "sideways_rate": 5.32, "forming_rate": 0.0, "both_cleared_rate": 38.28, "breakout_success_rate_ci95": [ 33.63, 37.38 ], "breakdown_success_rate_ci95": [ 57.26, 61.11 ], "sideways_rate_ci95": [ 4.51, 6.27 ], "forming_rate_ci95": [ 0.0, 0.15 ], "mean_ret_10c": -0.112, "mean_mfe": 6.667, "mean_mae": -6.813, "expected_hit_rate": 67.94, "max_up_natr": { "n": 2500, "mean": 2.635, "median": 1.715, "p25": 0.612, "p75": 3.503 }, "max_down_natr": { "n": 2500, "mean": -3.022, "median": -2.128, "p25": -3.931, "p75": -0.843 }, "median_max_up_natr": 1.715, "median_max_down_natr": -2.128, "mean_max_up_natr": 2.635, "mean_max_down_natr": -3.022, "p25_max_up_natr": 0.612, "p75_max_up_natr": 3.503, "p25_max_down_natr": -3.931, "p75_max_down_natr": -0.843, "outcome_natr_moves": { "breakout": { "n": 887, "max_up_natr": { "n": 887, "mean": 4.27, "median": 3.096, "p25": 1.996, "p75": 5.01 }, "max_down_natr": { "n": 887, "mean": -1.571, "median": -0.654, "p25": -1.812, "p75": -0.245 } }, "breakdown": { "n": 1480, "max_up_natr": { "n": 1480, "mean": 1.715, "median": 0.918, "p25": 0.288, "p75": 2.326 }, "max_down_natr": { "n": 1480, "mean": -4.023, "median": -3.041, "p25": -5.015, "p75": -1.882 } }, "sideways": { "n": 133, "max_up_natr": { "n": 133, "mean": 1.958, "median": 1.471, "p25": 0.873, "p75": 2.764 }, "max_down_natr": { "n": 133, "mean": -1.558, "median": -1.047, "p25": -2.108, "p75": -0.581 } }, "forming": { "n": 0, "max_up_natr": { "n": 0, "mean": null, "median": null, "p25": null, "p75": null }, "max_down_natr": { "n": 0, "mean": null, "median": null, "p25": null, "p75": null } } } } ], "histogram": { "bin_edges": [ -4.6977, -4.0908, -3.484, -2.8771, -2.2703, -1.6634, -1.0566, -0.4497, 0.1571, 0.7639, 1.3708, 1.9776, 2.5845, 3.1913, 3.7982, 4.405, 5.0119 ], "counts": [ 152, 54, 73, 161, 297, 563, 1340, 3791, 1999, 719, 317, 163, 122, 80, 44, 125 ], "bin_centers": [ -4.3942, -3.7874, -3.1806, -2.5737, -1.9669, -1.36, -0.7532, -0.1463, 0.4605, 1.0674, 1.6742, 2.2811, 2.8879, 3.4947, 4.1016, 4.7084 ] }, "sample_scope": "all_snapshots" } ], "all_ranked_features": [ "bd_level_1x", "bd_level_2x", "bd_level_3x", "bo_level_1x", "bo_level_2x", "bo_level_3x", "btc_dist14_mean", "confidence", "current_scale_number", "extension_candle_offset", "extension_progress", "geom_breakout_potential", "geom_confidence", "geom_height", "geom_hs_completion_score", "geom_hs_symmetry_score", "geom_overlap_ratio", "geom_resistance_slope", "geom_support_slope", "geom_width", "is_extended_snapshot", "momentum_score", "natr_14", "natr_pattern_avg", "rsi_14", "rsi_div_price_delta_pct", "rsi_div_price_divergence", "rsi_div_rsi_delta", "rsi_div_rsi_divergence", "rsi_div_span", "target_max_down_20c", "target_max_up_20c", "target_ret_20c", "volume_score" ], "findings": [ "Across 134,463 deduplicated pattern snapshots on Binance USD-M futures (15m\u20131d), mutually exclusive outcomes were breakout 49.22%, breakdown 45.26%, and sideways 5.52% (first \u00b11\u00d7 NATR threshold within 20 candles; rates sum to 100%).", "Expected-direction hit rate (bias-aware) was 72.21%. 38.24% of windows cleared 1\u00d7 NATR in both directions within the horizon; exclusive labels still follow first threshold touch in candle order.", "Pooled median 20-candle close return was -0.056% (win rate 49.06%); mean MFE/MAE was 5.81% / -4.807% (MFE\u00f7|MAE| \u2248 1.209).", "Highest expected-direction hit rate (n\u2265100): Bearish Flag on 4h at 82.4% (n=1,631). Lowest: Ascending Triangle on 1h at 25.85% (n=205).", "By timeframe, expected-direction hit ranged from 66.33% on 4h (n=22,681) to 69.02% on 15m (n=28,417).", "Confidence terciles: high-confidence detections had an expected-direction hit rate of 73.93% versus 73.4% in the low tercile (higher than low \u2014 detector confidence is not a reliable standalone filter in this raw sample).", "RSI context: breakout success was 78.92% when RSI(14) > 70 versus 20.92% when RSI(14) < 30 (largest-n timeframe slice, n\u226520 per bucket).", "Strongest high-n breakout correlate (single timeframe): current_scale_number (Spearman \u03c1=0.6026***, n=10,000). Absolute effect sizes remain small (|\u03c1| typically \u226a 0.1).", "Strongest high-n correlate of 20-candle close return: target_ret_20c (\u03c1=1.0***, n=10,000)." ] }